{"id":4682,"date":"2026-08-06T12:09:14","date_gmt":"2026-08-06T12:09:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/opture.com\/?p=4682"},"modified":"2026-09-29T21:44:40","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T21:44:40","slug":"wenn-die-welt-verruecktspielt-spielen-die-korrelationen-auch-verrueckt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/opture.com\/en\/blog\/wenn-die-welt-verruecktspielt-spielen-die-korrelationen-auch-verrueckt\/","title":{"rendered":"When the world goes crazy, the correlations also go crazy!\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"4682\" class=\"elementor elementor-4682\" data-elementor-settings=\"{&quot;element_pack_global_tooltip_width&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;element_pack_global_tooltip_width_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;element_pack_global_tooltip_width_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;element_pack_global_tooltip_padding&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;element_pack_global_tooltip_padding_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;element_pack_global_tooltip_padding_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;element_pack_global_tooltip_border_radius&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;element_pack_global_tooltip_border_radius_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;element_pack_global_tooltip_border_radius_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true}}\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-13bde31 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"13bde31\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8572f7e e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"8572f7e\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e151c82 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"e151c82\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h6 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">CORRELATIONS IN THE STRESS TEST<\/h6>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-67ca04c elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"67ca04c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">When the world goes crazy, the correlations also go crazy! \n\n<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-22d525d elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-mobile__width-inherit elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"22d525d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Why geopolitical shocks reconfigure risk management.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e44e24b elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-mobile__width-inherit elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"e44e24b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Geopolitical conflicts \u2013 whether in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, or the Indo-Pacific \u2013 are today more rapid, broader, and unpredictable for financial markets than in previous cycles. The globalized economy, fragile supply chains, and the high interconnectedness of capital markets lead to the fact that a regional conflict can trigger global price movements within hours. For the <a href=\"https:\/\/opture.com\/en\/glossar\/#risikosteuerung\">Risk management<\/a> What this means is: Stable relationships are an illusion. <a href=\"https:\/\/opture.com\/en\/glossar\/#risikokorrelation\">Correlations<\/a> are not a static parameter, but a <a href=\"https:\/\/opture.com\/en\/glossar\/#fruehwarnindikator\">early warning system<\/a>, Especially when there are factors (-&gt; market factor model).<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-572801e e-grid e-con-full e-con e-child\" data-id=\"572801e\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d781b98 ui-e-align-left ui-e-align-tablet-left ui-e-align-mobile-left elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit ui-e-left elementor-widget elementor-widget-uicore-icon-box\" data-id=\"d781b98\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;position&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;content_padding&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true}}\" data-widget_type=\"uicore-icon-box.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\n        <div class=\"ui-e-ico-box\" >\n\n            \n            <div class='ui-e-flex-wrp'>\n\n                \n                \n            <\/div>\n\n            <div class=\"ui-e-box-content\">\n                <div class=\"ui-e-title-wrp\"><h5 class=\"ui-e-title\"> Geopolitical shocks as a catalyst for correlation jumping<\/h5><div class=\"ui-e-subtitle\"> Wars and geopolitical tensions not only change price levels \u2013 they also change the relationships between markets. Typical patterns are: <\/div><\/div>\n                <div class=\"ui-e-description\">\n                    <ul><li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>Raw materials<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Energy prices often rise sharply, but not linearly \u2013 oil, gas, and industrial metals react differently depending on the conflict region.<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>Currencies:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Safe-haven flows (USD, EUR, CHF) are strengthening, while emerging market currencies are correlating abruptly, although they have little fundamental connection with each other.<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>Interest rates:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Risk aversion leads to flight to government bonds, but only as long as the conflict does not have an inflationary effect (e.g., energy price shocks).<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>Share markets:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Industries are suddenly more closely correlated (e.g., energy &amp; armaments) or are decoupling.<\/span><\/li><\/ul>                <\/div>\n\n                \n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e9cda69 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"e9cda69\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0e47565 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"0e47565\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1184347 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"1184347\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-583209e e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"583209e\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cfcfdb3 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"cfcfdb3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Why correlations are essential in risk management<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-65d7639 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-mobile__width-inherit elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"65d7639\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/opture.com\/en\/glossar\/#risikokorrelation\">Correlations<\/a> are the foundation of any quantitative <a href=\"https:\/\/opture.com\/en\/glossar\/#risikosteuerung\">Risk management<\/a>. Their meanings are:<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-313f886 e-grid e-con-full e-con e-child\" data-id=\"313f886\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;shape_divider_top&quot;:&quot;triangle&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-shape elementor-shape-top\" aria-hidden=\"true\" data-negative=\"false\">\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 1000 100\" preserveaspectratio=\"none\">\n\t<path class=\"elementor-shape-fill\" d=\"M500,98.9L0,6.1V0h1000v6.1L500,98.9z\"\/>\n<\/svg>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a0d3f13 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"a0d3f13\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f6fc8f5 ui-e-align-left ui-e-align-tablet-left ui-e-align-mobile-left elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit ui-e-top elementor-widget elementor-widget-uicore-icon-box\" data-id=\"f6fc8f5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;position&quot;:&quot;top&quot;,&quot;content_padding&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true}}\" data-widget_type=\"uicore-icon-box.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\n        <div class=\"ui-e-ico-box\" >\n\n            \n            <div class='ui-e-flex-wrp'>\n\n                                    <div class=\"ui-e-icon-wrp\">\n\n                        <i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ti ti-shield\"><\/i>\n                    <\/div>\n                \n                <div class=\"ui-e-title-wrp\"><h5 class=\"ui-e-title\">VaR<\/h5><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n\n            <div class=\"ui-e-box-content\">\n                \n                <div class=\"ui-e-description\">\n                    <p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><a href=\"https:\/\/opture.com\/en\/glossar\/#risikokorrelation\">Correlations<\/a> determine how risks reinforce or neutralize each other.<\/span><\/p>                <\/div>\n\n                \n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b56511f e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"b56511f\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-91eecb5 ui-e-align-left ui-e-align-tablet-left ui-e-align-mobile-left elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit ui-e-top elementor-widget elementor-widget-uicore-icon-box\" data-id=\"91eecb5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;position&quot;:&quot;top&quot;,&quot;content_padding&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true}}\" data-widget_type=\"uicore-icon-box.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\n        <div class=\"ui-e-ico-box\" >\n\n            \n            <div class='ui-e-flex-wrp'>\n\n                                    <div class=\"ui-e-icon-wrp\">\n\n                        <i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ti ti-check-box\"><\/i>\n                    <\/div>\n                \n                <div class=\"ui-e-title-wrp\"><h5 class=\"ui-e-title\">Stress tests<\/h5><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n\n            <div class=\"ui-e-box-content\">\n                \n                <div class=\"ui-e-description\">\n                    <p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Only with dynamic <a href=\"https:\/\/opture.com\/en\/glossar\/#risikokorrelation\">Correlations<\/a> realistic shocks can be modeled.<\/span><\/p>                <\/div>\n\n                \n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d5acdea e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"d5acdea\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2c2bd0a ui-e-align-left ui-e-align-tablet-left ui-e-align-mobile-left elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit ui-e-top elementor-widget elementor-widget-uicore-icon-box\" data-id=\"2c2bd0a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;position&quot;:&quot;top&quot;,&quot;content_padding&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true}}\" data-widget_type=\"uicore-icon-box.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\n        <div class=\"ui-e-ico-box\" >\n\n            \n            <div class='ui-e-flex-wrp'>\n\n                                    <div class=\"ui-e-icon-wrp\">\n\n                        <i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ti ti-settings\"><\/i>\n                    <\/div>\n                \n                <div class=\"ui-e-title-wrp\"><h5 class=\"ui-e-title\">Portfolio construction<\/h5><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n\n            <div class=\"ui-e-box-content\">\n                \n                <div class=\"ui-e-description\">\n                    <p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Diversification exists only if <a href=\"https:\/\/opture.com\/en\/glossar\/#risikokorrelation\">Correlations<\/a> not running against 1.<\/span><\/p>                <\/div>\n\n                \n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-26b8e83 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"26b8e83\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cbe5c33 ui-e-align-left ui-e-align-tablet-left ui-e-align-mobile-left elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit ui-e-top elementor-widget elementor-widget-uicore-icon-box\" data-id=\"cbe5c33\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;position&quot;:&quot;top&quot;,&quot;content_padding&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true}}\" data-widget_type=\"uicore-icon-box.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\n        <div class=\"ui-e-ico-box\" >\n\n            \n            <div class='ui-e-flex-wrp'>\n\n                                    <div class=\"ui-e-icon-wrp\">\n\n                        <i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ti ti-reload\"><\/i>\n                    <\/div>\n                \n                <div class=\"ui-e-title-wrp\"><h5 class=\"ui-e-title\">Hedging<\/h5><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n\n            <div class=\"ui-e-box-content\">\n                \n                <div class=\"ui-e-description\">\n                    <p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">A hedge only works if the expected countermovement actually occurs.<\/span><\/p>                <\/div>\n\n                \n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-60761ee e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"60761ee\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c8a1472 e-grid e-con-full e-con e-child\" data-id=\"c8a1472\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4ce3130 ui-e-align-left ui-e-align-tablet-left ui-e-align-mobile-left elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit ui-e-left elementor-widget elementor-widget-uicore-icon-box\" data-id=\"4ce3130\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;position&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;content_padding&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true}}\" data-widget_type=\"uicore-icon-box.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\n        <div class=\"ui-e-ico-box\" >\n\n            \n            <div class='ui-e-flex-wrp'>\n\n                \n                \n            <\/div>\n\n            <div class=\"ui-e-box-content\">\n                <div class=\"ui-e-title-wrp\"><h5 class=\"ui-e-title\">The problem: Correlations break down exactly when you need them the most<\/h5><div class=\"ui-e-subtitle\"> Historical correlations are only conditionally useful in times of war. Typical effects are: <\/div><\/div>\n                <div class=\"ui-e-description\">\n                    <ul><li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b><a href=\"https:\/\/opture.com\/en\/glossar\/#risikokorrelation\">Correlations<\/a> change abruptly:\u00a0<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Oil and the US dollar correlate negatively during times of peace \u2013 often positively during times of war.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><ul><li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>Tail risks are synchronized:\u00a0<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Markets fall simultaneously, even if they are fundamentally independent.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><ul><li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>Liquidity shortages are artificially created <a href=\"https:\/\/opture.com\/en\/glossar\/#risikokorrelation\">Correlations<\/a>:\u00a0<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Forced selling (e.g., simultaneous selling due to a lack of liquidity) leads to a leveling out across asset classes.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">For risk managers, this means: Anyone who treats correlations statically is measuring risks incorrectly.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>                <\/div>\n\n                \n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a55d8ea e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"a55d8ea\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ffa3503 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"ffa3503\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">How to properly use correlations in geopolitical stress periods\n<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-54b95a3 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-mobile__width-inherit elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"54b95a3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A modern one <a href=\"https:\/\/opture.com\/en\/glossar\/#risikosteuerung\">Risk control approach<\/a> Includes:<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fe82d7a e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"fe82d7a\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-dcf12d8 ui-e-align-left elementor-widget__width-inherit ui-e-align-mobile-left ui-e-align-tablet-left ui-e-top elementor-widget elementor-widget-uicore-icon-box\" data-id=\"dcf12d8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;position&quot;:&quot;top&quot;,&quot;content_padding&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true}}\" data-widget_type=\"uicore-icon-box.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\n        <div class=\"ui-e-ico-box\" >\n\n            \n            <div class='ui-e-flex-wrp'>\n\n                                    <div class=\"ui-e-icon-wrp\">\n\n                        <svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-project-diagram\" viewbox=\"0 0 640 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M384 320H256c-17.67 0-32 14.33-32 32v128c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h128c17.67 0 32-14.33 32-32V352c0-17.67-14.33-32-32-32zM192 32c0-17.67-14.33-32-32-32H32C14.33 0 0 14.33 0 32v128c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h95.72l73.16 128.04C211.98 300.98 232.4 288 256 288h.28L192 175.51V128h224V64H192V32zM608 0H480c-17.67 0-32 14.33-32 32v128c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h128c17.67 0 32-14.33 32-32V32c0-17.67-14.33-32-32-32z\"><\/path><\/svg>\n                    <\/div>\n                \n                <div class=\"ui-e-title-wrp\"><h4 class=\"ui-e-title\">Regime-based correlations<\/h4><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n\n            <div class=\"ui-e-box-content\">\n                \n                <div class=\"ui-e-description\">\n                    <p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00abIn this context, \u00bbregime\u201d means a market phase: a distinction between normal, stress, inflation, and war regimes (= extreme uncertainty with commodity shocks and currency flight). In each regime, behavior <a href=\"https:\/\/opture.com\/en\/glossar\/#risikosteuerung\">Correlations<\/a> different.<\/span><\/p>                <\/div>\n\n                \n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5f2db7a e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"5f2db7a\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-734dbf1 ui-e-align-left elementor-widget__width-inherit ui-e-align-mobile-left ui-e-align-tablet-left ui-e-top elementor-widget elementor-widget-uicore-icon-box\" data-id=\"734dbf1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;position&quot;:&quot;top&quot;,&quot;content_padding&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true}}\" data-widget_type=\"uicore-icon-box.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\n        <div class=\"ui-e-ico-box\" >\n\n            \n            <div class='ui-e-flex-wrp'>\n\n                                    <div class=\"ui-e-icon-wrp\">\n\n                        <i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ri ri-line-chart-fill\"><\/i>\n                    <\/div>\n                \n                <div class=\"ui-e-title-wrp\"><h4 class=\"ui-e-title\">Forward-looking indicators:<\/h4><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n\n            <div class=\"ui-e-box-content\">\n                \n                <div class=\"ui-e-description\">\n                    <p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">For example, volatility indices, CDS spreads, commodity futures curves.<\/span><\/p>                <\/div>\n\n                \n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e823c10 ui-e-align-left elementor-widget__width-inherit ui-e-align-mobile-left ui-e-align-tablet-left ui-e-top elementor-widget elementor-widget-uicore-icon-box\" data-id=\"e823c10\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;position&quot;:&quot;top&quot;,&quot;content_padding&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true}}\" data-widget_type=\"uicore-icon-box.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\n        <div class=\"ui-e-ico-box\" >\n\n            \n            <div class='ui-e-flex-wrp'>\n\n                                    <div class=\"ui-e-icon-wrp\">\n\n                        <svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-bolt\" viewbox=\"0 0 320 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M296 160H180.6l42.6-129.8C227.2 15 215.7 0 200 0H56C44 0 33.8 8.9 32.2 20.8l-32 240C-1.7 275.2 9.5 288 24 288h118.7L96.6 482.5c-3.6 15.2 8 29.5 23.3 29.5 8.4 0 16.4-4.4 20.8-12l176-304c9.3-15.9-2.2-36-20.7-36z\"><\/path><\/svg>\n                    <\/div>\n                \n                <div class=\"ui-e-title-wrp\"><h4 class=\"ui-e-title\">Intraday correlations: <\/h4><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n\n            <div class=\"ui-e-box-content\">\n                \n                <div class=\"ui-e-description\">\n                    <p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Quick reaction capability in geopolitical events.<\/span><\/p>                <\/div>\n\n                \n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8d94047 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"8d94047\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-56edc0c ui-e-align-left elementor-widget__width-inherit ui-e-align-mobile-left ui-e-align-tablet-left ui-e-top elementor-widget elementor-widget-uicore-icon-box\" data-id=\"56edc0c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;position&quot;:&quot;top&quot;,&quot;content_padding&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true}}\" data-widget_type=\"uicore-icon-box.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\n        <div class=\"ui-e-ico-box\" >\n\n            \n            <div class='ui-e-flex-wrp'>\n\n                                    <div class=\"ui-e-icon-wrp\">\n\n                        <i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"lu lu-layers\"><\/i>\n                    <\/div>\n                \n                <div class=\"ui-e-title-wrp\"><h4 class=\"ui-e-title\">Scenario clusters: <\/h4><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n\n            <div class=\"ui-e-box-content\">\n                \n                <div class=\"ui-e-description\">\n                    <p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Not one scenario, but several plausible conflict scenarios.<\/span><\/p>                <\/div>\n\n                \n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-819d9d1 ui-e-align-left elementor-widget__width-inherit ui-e-align-mobile-left ui-e-align-tablet-left ui-e-top elementor-widget elementor-widget-uicore-icon-box\" data-id=\"819d9d1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;position&quot;:&quot;top&quot;,&quot;content_padding&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true},&quot;content_padding_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;top&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;right&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;bottom&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;left&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;isLinked&quot;:true}}\" data-widget_type=\"uicore-icon-box.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\n        <div class=\"ui-e-ico-box\" >\n\n            \n            <div class='ui-e-flex-wrp'>\n\n                                    <div class=\"ui-e-icon-wrp\">\n\n                        <svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-far-bell\" viewbox=\"0 0 448 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M439.39 362.29c-19.32-20.76-55.47-51.99-55.47-154.29 0-77.7-54.48-139.9-127.94-155.16V32c0-17.67-14.32-32-31.98-32s-31.98 14.33-31.98 32v20.84C118.56 68.1 64.08 130.3 64.08 208c0 102.3-36.15 133.53-55.47 154.29-6 6.45-8.66 14.16-8.61 21.71.11 16.4 12.98 32 32.1 32h383.8c19.12 0 32-15.6 32.1-32 .05-7.55-2.61-15.27-8.61-21.71zM67.53 368c21.22-27.97 44.42-74.33 44.53-159.42 0-.2-.06-.38-.06-.58 0-61.86 50.14-112 112-112s112 50.14 112 112c0 .2-.06.38-.06.58.11 85.1 23.31 131.46 44.53 159.42H67.53zM224 512c35.32 0 63.97-28.65 63.97-64H160.03c0 35.35 28.65 64 63.97 64z\"><\/path><\/svg>\n                    <\/div>\n                \n                <div class=\"ui-e-title-wrp\"><h4 class=\"ui-e-title\">Correlations as an early warning signal:<\/h4><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n\n            <div class=\"ui-e-box-content\">\n                \n                <div class=\"ui-e-description\">\n                    <p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Rising cross-asset correlations are often a precursor to systemic risks.<\/span><\/p>                <\/div>\n\n                \n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4a5a49c elementor-widget elementor-widget-html\" data-id=\"4a5a49c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"html.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"opture-fazit\">\n  <div class=\"opture-fazit__marker\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n    \u2713\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"opture-fazit__content\">\n    <span class=\"opture-fazit__label\">Conclusion<\/span>\n\n    <h3>The message for decision-makers<\/h3>\n\n    <p>\n      Geopolitical conflicts are no longer a marginal issue \u2013 they are a structural risk driver. Correlations help quantify this complexity and translate it into control logics. Those who understand correlations understand the risk dynamics of the present. Those who ignore them blindly steer blind. Correlations should not be viewed as a mathematical footnote, but as a strategic tool.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<style>\n.opture-fazit {\n  position: relative;\n  display: flex;\n  align-items: flex-start;\n  gap: 20px;\n  margin-top: 40px;\n  padding: 32px 34px;\n  overflow: hidden;\n\n  background:\n    radial-gradient(circle at 95% 50%, rgba(181,9,16,.08) 0%, rgba(181,9,16,0) 34%),\n    linear-gradient(135deg,#ffffff 0%,#f8f9fb 100%);\n\n  border: 1px solid #e5e8ee;\n  border-radius: 18px;\n\n  box-shadow:\n    0 16px 40px rgba(10,16,35,.07),\n    0 4px 12px rgba(10,16,35,.03);\n}\n\n.opture-fazit::before{\n  content:\"\";\n  position:absolute;\n  top:0;\n  left:34px;\n\n  width:76px;\n  height:4px;\n\n  background:linear-gradient(90deg,#8d0b10,#cf1a21);\n  border-radius:0 0 999px 999px;\n}\n\n.opture-fazit::after{\n  content:\"\";\n  position:absolute;\n  right:-110px;\n  bottom:-120px;\n\n  width:260px;\n  height:260px;\n\n  background:radial-gradient(circle,\n  rgba(181,9,16,.08) 0%,\n  rgba(181,9,16,0) 70%);\n\n  border-radius:50%;\n}\n\n.opture-fazit__marker{\n  display:flex;\n  align-items:center;\n  justify-content:center;\n\n  flex:0 0 52px;\n  width:52px;\n  height:52px;\n\n  color:#fff;\n  font-size:24px;\n  font-weight:700;\n\n  border-radius:14px;\n\n  background:linear-gradient(145deg,#8a0b10,#cf1a21);\n\n  box-shadow:\n    0 12px 28px rgba(181,9,16,.22),\n    inset 0 1px 0 rgba(255,255,255,.2);\n\n  z-index:2;\n}\n\n.opture-fazit__content{\n  position:relative;\n  z-index:2;\n}\n\n.opture-fazit__label{\n  display:block;\n  margin-bottom:6px;\n\n  color:#b50910;\n  font-size:13px;\n  font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.08em;\n  text-transform:uppercase;\n}\n\n.opture-fazit__content h3{\n  margin:0 0 12px;\n  color:#081021;\n  font-size:30px;\n  line-height:1.25;\n  font-weight:700;\n}\n\n.opture-fazit__content p{\n  margin:0;\n  max-width:1050px;\n\n  color:#4f596f;\n  font-size:17px;\n  line-height:1.75;\n}\n\n@media (max-width:767px){\n\n.opture-fazit{\npadding:24px 20px;\ngap:16px;\n}\n\n.opture-fazit::before{\nleft:20px;\n}\n\n.opture-fazit__marker{\nwidth:46px;\nheight:46px;\nfont-size:20px;\nborder-radius:12px;\n}\n\n.opture-fazit__content h3{\nfont-size:23px;\n}\n\n.opture-fazit__content p{\nfont-size:15px;\nline-height:1.65;\n}\n\n}\n<\/style>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>KORRELATIONEN IM STRESSTEST Wenn die Welt verr\u00fccktspielt, spielen die Korrelationen auch verr\u00fcckt! Warum geopolitische Schocks die Risikosteuerung neu kalibrieren. Geopolitische Konflikte \u2013 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4682","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Wenn die Welt verr\u00fccktspielt, spielen die Korrelationen auch verr\u00fcckt!\u00a0 - Opture<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/opture.com\/en\/blog\/wenn-die-welt-verruecktspielt-spielen-die-korrelationen-auch-verrueckt\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Wenn die Welt verr\u00fccktspielt, spielen die Korrelationen auch verr\u00fcckt!\u00a0 - Opture\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"KORRELATIONEN IM STRESSTEST Wenn die Welt verr\u00fccktspielt, spielen die Korrelationen auch verr\u00fcckt! Warum geopolitische Schocks die Risikosteuerung neu kalibrieren. 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